State Budgets, the Next Fiscal “Crisis”

November 30th, 2008 Urban Conservative

Repost from Cogito Ergo Blog.

The holiday week has been quiet.  The Big Three CEOs went home (presumably flying in Coach-class), president-elect Obama has a least slowed his moving out furniture and walking W to the door.  For now, the electorate has been left to lick their wounds from the bailout/election/bailout cycle.  And the “newsies” are focused on the terrorist attacks in India.

But the respite will not linger.  December 2nd is the date that the Big Three need to present an “acceptable” plan to Congress in order to earn another bailout and the next ill-fated stimulus package is being negotiated (defining how the newly-elected will pay back their support groups with tax payer handouts).  As expected, the line for more handouts is starting to form, as city transit agencies are due to come, cup in hand to the Hill this week.  Beyond economics, the world is watching the terrorist attacks in India, the fact remains that pirates now hold at least a dozen ships, shoppers are trampling to death fellow human-beings to save $50 on the newest gadgets, and the constant rumblings from Iran continue.  As Peggy Noonan says, there are many disturbances still ahead.

So before the holes start springing in the economic dike, this is a good time to re-group and see what we have created.  In a post last week, a discussion ensued about how the government is perpetuating a moral hazard of undefined scale and scope.  Moral hazard is an economic concept founded in the insurance business.  The premise is that people will take greater risks, or engage in more risky behavior than otherwise, because they believe they will not bear the full consequence of their actions.  And while much has been made of the Wall Street / Detroit bailouts ($4.3 Trillion, so far), the next group of over-spenders is getting ready to put out their hands – and taxpayer will soon be asked to stem the impending failure of state governments to meet required balanced budgets.

Some 41 states are facing budget shortfalls.  According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the current total gap is expected to be $24.3 billion, and will continue to grow as economic growth slows.  The shortfall is expected to double for fiscal year 2009, to close to $48 billion. And unlike the federal government, most states cannot run a deficit (by the force of constitutionally bound balanced budget requirements) or borrow to cover expenditures.

One reason for the budget woes; state revenues have been negatively impacted by reduced state sales tax revenue, reduced property tax revenues, and as the employment situation deteriorates income tax revenues will weaken.  Further pressure will be felt as local governments will seek relief from the state government to offset reductions in local education budgets.

As a result, cuts will occur at the state level for public health programs, for elementary and secondary education, and to impose workforce reductions.  Some states will tap “rainy-day funds” to make up shortfalls, but even these measures may fall short. At the end of FY06 reserves averaged 11.5% of state spending.  This number has declined to 7.5% as the economy enters the FY09 recession.

How have states managed their income statements?  Of course it varies by state, but using California as an example – during FY08, the state spent $13 billion more than it has received in revenue, spending $108 billion, while bringing in $95 billion as of March 29, 2008.  Is this a new phenomenon?  Hardly - there has been a 32 percent increase in California’s spending from 2003 to 2008, with revenues falling far behind.

California is spending $10.5 billion annually to fund benefits for illegal immigration, according to the Federation of American Immigration Reform.  On an aggregate basis, the total K-12 school expenditure for illegal immigrants costs states nearly $12 billion annually, and when the children born here to illegal aliens are added, the costs more than double to $28.6 billion.

And while California has budget shortfalls of large scale proportion, 41 other states have the same issues on a smaller scale.  The politician’s response so far – hope.  That is, they hope to find “efficiencies” in consolidation of some departments, or hope to out-source certain functions, and last the always popular “across-the-board” cuts.

There is no doubt that states have been spendthrifts over the past four to six years.  And the inertia from this spending will need to be slowed now that the inevitable economic downturn drags down revenues.  And unlike the current cycle of governmental actions (guarantees, capital infusions, et. al.), the state budget problems will be felt on a very local level.  Education funding will be cut, affecting school programs and administration.  Infrastructure maintenance will be reduced.  And to make matters worse, individual cities are also facing huge deficits, causing cities to find ways to increase revenues (see NYC tax on plastic bags).

Over the next six months Americans will see the results of years of out-of-control spending at the state and local levels.  And we will face the consequence of the failures of our elected officials to act as fiduciary stewards of our state and cities.  The split between Republican and Democratic governors is about even - 22 (R) to 28(D) – and each state has their own reasons for success or failure (immigration funding, managed health care debacles, etc.), but in the end, the governors and legislatures have spent our taxes like a sub-prime borrower.  The bill will soon come due.  And has become the practice of the day – the failed managers (CEOs, Mayors, Governors, and just about every other failed enterprise), will make their way to DC for a taxpayer bailout of their economic malfeasance.  As for the rest of us - in the words of an Obama-mentor (at least before his fall from grace) – “the chickens have come home to roost”.


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30 Comments

MyAvatars 0.2 psst!: terrorists are intensifying test on new president: India, "attack" Pakistan...
Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 9:02 am
1

  A single opinion: terrorists think that by "invading" (US) Pakistan "they would be able to create another front to weaker the war on terror, you know, more "drivebymedia controversy propaganda professionalism"...
  The same single opinion: if "binladen is using Kashimira as a shield for even nukes from NATO", then is not necessary invade Pakistan if tou want "to go and do what haven't being done"...
  terrorists just tested new president by the most hatefull (terrorhate kind) race-religion-country-nature terrorinsult I've ever heard...
  Even I wrote deffending new president.
  But, the difficulty on osama capture Is just that... everybody on Kashimira "looks like osama", and it is "another sanctuary inside of a country", as taliban was, as UN$adam was...
sealed to anti-terror spying...

MyAvatars 0.2 Dora
Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 9:09 am
2

The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.
"Expect fallout, expect foreclosures, expect horror stories," California mortgage lender Paris Welch wrote to U.S. regulators in January 2006, about one year before the housing implosion cost her a job.
Bowing to aggressive lobbying _ along with assurances from banks that the troubled mortgages were OK _ regulators delayed action for nearly one year. By the time new rules were released late in 2006, the toughest of the proposed provisions were gone and the meltdown was under way.
These mortgages have been considered more safe and sound for portfolio lenders than many fixed rate mortgages," David Schneider, home loan president of Washington Mutual, told federal regulators in early 2006. Two years later, WaMu became the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
The administration's blind eye to the impending crisis is emblematic of a philosophy that trusted market forces and discounted the need for government intervention in the economy. Its belief ironically has ushered in the most massive government intervention since the 1930s.

MyAvatars 0.2 A single little opinion: conservative globalmovements cybertalk also on God "things"...
Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 9:18 am
3

I humildly ask this site more God "things", or Intelligent Design, Creation, etc. you know, God's US constitutional American dream, envolves a natural universal dream to all God's creatures, anywhere, anytime...
It's is like conservatives are naturally ought to give freedom and protect that "pieces of God's Nature" on humanity's souls...
Remember, my old friends, "little angels, or elves can not exist on our ancestral past and history if "nobody think on them"...
and... they are angels, guardian angels to any people, as his "American" universal dream, it is there, even if some people don't agree or "just don't like god's" "things" (maybe is because they don't understand what are we)...

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Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 2:22 am
4

The days of fiscal discipline are over.  Bailouts are now a permanent fixture in our political landscape.  Get used to it.
http://rightklik.blogspot.com/

48) { this.width = 48; this.height = 48; } ; if (this.width < 48) { this.parentNode.href = 'http://www.gravatar.com/'; this.parentNode.title = 'Gravatar'; this.src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=bb8f1ed1f6deecfadfe3cc868ee697f4&size=48&default=http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/images/pict_none.gif'; this.onload=void(null); }" alt="MyAvatars 0.2"/> davidwwalters
Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 5:17 am
5

UC....
You dutifully wrote about how California is wasting money on illegals,
-But what will you do with all those illegals?
Lock them up?  How much would that cost the state of California?
<< the total K-12 school expenditure for illegal immigrants costs states nearly $12 billion annually, and when the children born here to illegal aliens are added, the costs more than double to $28.6 billion.>>
I take it you don't think educating young people is a good idea.

<<Everybody on Kashimira "looks like osama", and it is "another sanctuary inside of a country", as taliban was, as UN$adam was...
sealed to anti-terror spying...
>>-psst!: terrorists are intensifying test.....
-Look for the TALL one....

MyAvatars 0.2 John Calla
Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 pm
6

Our entire standard of living is debt-financed, there's no way around it.  And considering that more people are now employed by government than manufacturing, and government is beyond broke, we're staring down some really bad juju.

David,

If illegals weren't employed here, received medical care here, received an education here, or living expenses here, they would return to wherever they came.

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
7

i would like to know how many illegals are going to be employed in obama's plan to build infrastructure.  we all know there are a lot of them working on roads, bridges, etc., now so what makes me think precious obama is going to ensure those new jobs are going to Americans?  ha!  we know the answer to that one!  he is a liberal so we know!  of course, America does not see any of that money spent here.  it is sent back to their families in Mexico.  so they will continue so suck our hard-earned money out of this country and a lot will get away with not paying taxes but we are educating the kids they choose to have.  it is a win/win for them and a lose/lose for hardworking honest Americans.  some of the contractors that i have known don't pay benefits or have good wages so how is this going to improve things?  democrats are buying into everything this man is offering without really thinking about what he is saying is all i can figure or they may understand and be selfish and just want a handout.  an idiot would have understood that during his campaign obama was preaching a economic plan that would stifle the growth of this economy further.  so the day after the election as i predicted on this site, he started backing down from his plan.  now he is just merely repeating what any sane economist in the US would tell him.  he will keep taxes low on the American's/businesses making a little money to stimulate the economy.  now i expected him to be an "honest" man.  ha!  well that is what the democrats were in heated dicussions with me about on this blog and elsewhere.  it is funny that he has proven to be dishonest (a nice term) and the democrats are still praising him.  it is sad that America has stooped to these levels of ignorance!  I have disagreed with some of Bush's decisions and have openly complained about things i didn't like.  I have even called our Senators' offices to voice my concerns.  i cannot ignore issues that are in my face but it seems the democrats do.  oh but let's give this poor, poor guy a chance!  well if he suddenly wakes up one morning and decides to start being truthful, he will have his buddies pelosi, reid, dodd and frank to put a stop to it.  i laugh when i hear him say that he will be the leader and responsible for all decisions made.  yeah!  funny but sad!  now why was i wrong to vote for McCain again?  ha!  i was right!

48) { this.width = 48; this.height = 48; } ; if (this.width < 48) { this.parentNode.href = 'http://www.gravatar.com/'; this.parentNode.title = 'Gravatar'; this.src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=bb8f1ed1f6deecfadfe3cc868ee697f4&size=48&default=http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/images/pict_none.gif'; this.onload=void(null); }" alt="MyAvatars 0.2"/> davidwwalters
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 7:49 am
8

John Calla writes in 6: <<...................they would return to wherever they came.>> -it sounds OK until you think of the logistics involved...... How many millions of people are we talking about? Where would they go awaiting processing? How much would all of this cost? Building and maintaining these concentration camps would have to be paid by someone, and the cost of staffing these camps along with the cost of building up a police force to collect all these people would not be free either..... -Think about what you are asking John. And Titus(7): -Who hires the illegals? Is it just liberals? I'd be willing to bet more than a few republicans knowingly hire illegals.

MyAvatars 0.2 Dora
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 6:02 pm
9

Illegal's come here because they are offered jobs and paid under the table.
Who does this?   You foolish conservatives have yet to understand that illegal's are not here for a suntan- but for employment.  If you wish to address the illegal's working in the US- you address the employer who enables them. 
Titus- again, you have your head up your butt.  One of the items Obama addressed concerning illegal immigrants was specifically the above.  You may wish to re-read it for further clarification.   And, for goodness sake- calm down- you constantly have your undies in a bunch over what Obama will do since he is such a "liberal"  (eeeeeek).  Open your eyes and look around you.  You will be hard pressed to find anyone (except Hannity and Limbaugh) calling Obama a liberal.   He is considered quite moderate by all measures.   You are so wrong on so many counts concerning Obama that you really need to keep a paper bag handy in case you hyperventilate again.  Really.   It would be comical ordinarily- but you just look super stupid once you start pontificating about Obama. 

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
10

Dora-- i don't really care what you have to say and think you look ignorant for your comments and attitude towards obama.  you need to get your head out of your ass and start seeing him for what he is.  you have your opinion and i have mine!  so from now on your comments towards me will be ignored! 

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
11

David--i agree that both sides are at fault.  this problem is the result of greed.  i think any employer caught knowingly hiring these folks should be put out of business for good.  fines are not good enough because the effects of their actions affect this entire country.  that would pretty much eliminate that problem.  however, there is another problem here--the illegals disrespect what we stand for when they come to this country and break our laws.  they are not helping themselves or their families in their home country as much as they could if they worked as a country to change their government.  instead they take the easy way out and cause major problems for us.  the companies that hire these people and the illegals are both wrong.  two wrongs don't make a right and there is no excuse for either.  however, our government has not listened to the mayors and governments of the border states as they should and put a stop to the problems by sealing the borders.  now they have made progress but it has not been corrected.  right or wrong but i don't want to pay for any services or educate them or their children.  if we stopped and didn't offer them services, that would be another reason for them to leave.  i don't believe in doing anything but throwing these people out of our country at the cheapest costs possible.  some would call this cruel but it has to stop and we have to start somewhere or this will continue.

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
12

David--i agree that both sides are at fault.  this problem is the result of greed.  i think any employer caught knowingly hiring these folks should be put out of business for good.  fines are not good enough because the effects of their actions affect this entire country.  that would pretty much eliminate that problem.  however, there is another problem here--the illegals disrespect what we stand for when they come to this country and break our laws.  they are not helping themselves or their families in their home country as much as they could if they worked as a country to change their government.  instead they take the easy way out and cause major problems for us.  they have no rights and shouldn't!  however, there are organizations on the left who are fighting for them while screwing our country our of finite resources.  we have enough problems right now.  the companies that hire these people and the illegals are both wrong.  two wrongs don't make a right and there is no excuse for either.  however, our federal government has not listened to the mayors and governments of the border states as they should and put a stop to the problems by sealing the borders.  now they have made progress but it has not been corrected.  right or wrong but i don't want to pay for any services or educate them or their children.  if we stopped and didn't offer them services, that would be another reason for them to leave.  i don't believe in doing anything but throwing these people out of our country at the cheapest costs possible.  some would call this cruel but it has to stop and we have to start somewhere or this will continue.  we give enough welfare to those who choose not to better themselves and have children they can't support and don't need the burdens on our economy the illegals cause. 

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
13

by the way moderates don't hold obama's moral beliefs.  that is funny.  i'm calling a spade, a spade and some people don't like it.   

MyAvatars 0.2 Thomas Seabrooks
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
14

It is clear that many states are going to see a lot of pain. there was the government shutdowns in Michigan because they could not fund the various offices. My wife is a social worker here in Nashville and they have stopped hiring new people - gave old employees buyouts - Our governor is building a 20 million$ ballroom for entertaining guests on the property that houses the governor's mansion - and to top it off the city's public schools may be in danger of a government takeover for poor performance. Frankly, I don't see how we can afford programs for government takeover of schools - proposed new infrastructure programs, etc. When so many states are having trouble paying people to rescue abused children and teach children.

The answer, IMHO, is a larger push towards privatization of key roles historically run by the government. Things like Ohio's charter school program, and the vouchers to attend them, I view as a good step in the right direction but we can do more. Why not privatize roads? Divert tax dollars into private companies who will, on an annual basis, bid on the upkeep of some portion of road. If the bids are cheaper than the government currently spends doing it let the private sector run it. Then extend this program to everything from road improvement - to state parks. Further, we need to make it easier for people to participate in bidding on government contracts. I strongly suggest a book called "The death of common sense" as a primer on some of the problems bureacracy is causing.

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Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 4:53 am
15

Thomas Seabrooks thinks the answer to fiscal problems is privatization:
<<The answer, IMHO, is a larger push towards privatization of key roles historically run by the government.......Divert tax dollars into private companies who will, on an annual basis, bid on the upkeep of some portion of road.>>
-The problem is accountability Thomas.  I have worked as an inspector for NCDOT and as a highway construction engineer for a large city in N.C.
I can tell you from experience that contractors routinely cheat.  Unless state law mandates some kind of performance bond we will have shoddy, unsafe highways constructed.
-Privatization has also failed with respect to our military, where this concept was introduced during the Reagan Administration.  Haliburton now feeds our troops instead of the old "mess sergeant"........
-and they hire local Iraqi's to feed our troops?  Not safe if you ask me.

MyAvatars 0.2 Thomas Seabrooks
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 4:59 am
16

-Privatization has also failed with respect to our military, where this concept was introduced during the Reagan Administration.  Haliburton now feeds our troops instead of the old "mess sergeant"........

What does failure mean here though? Are some of the private military forces stepping out of line and going around unchecked? Absolutely - I guess that's a failure. But are we getting the service cheaper than we did when the Government covered all of these issues? Yes. The issue isn't a matter of the *idea* it's a matter of implementation. Military contractors should be held to the UCMJ. Likewise contractors doing construction projects should have performance requirements. Have the government release no monies until the job is completed to their satisfaction - I certainly wouldn't be paying the contractors putting on my new roof until they were done and I had it inspected.

48) { this.width = 48; this.height = 48; } ; if (this.width < 48) { this.parentNode.href = 'http://www.gravatar.com/'; this.parentNode.title = 'Gravatar'; this.src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=bb8f1ed1f6deecfadfe3cc868ee697f4&size=48&default=http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/images/pict_none.gif'; this.onload=void(null); }" alt="MyAvatars 0.2"/> davidwwalters
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 5:11 am
17

Thomas....
-with respect to highway construction, roadway failure may not be evident until some time after the completion of a project....it occurred along a stretch of I-40  outside of Durham a few years ago.  Not enough wasteful
government employees (ie.construction inspectors) were present to note that the contractor had not built the sub base to specification.....and much later the pavement failed.
-with respect to military contractors, having our troops fed by a private contractor using local employees is not safe from an Operation Security point of view, not to mention the accountability problems "Blackwater" has caused in Iraq.

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
18

I agree with the accountability part and at this point we can't count on the government to have it on themselves much less other companies and/or people.

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Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
19

Gosh Titus,
You think a contractor will have more accountability than a government agency?

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
20

ha!  i think it is about the same.  the government has proven for decades that there is a big lack of accountability in-house.  just look at the oversite committee for this bailout plan.  it is a joke!  that is why people are saying there has not been enough transparency!  the government has too much power as it is and can't manage anything right and it never has!  so if contractors have accountability, they will have very little.  they will have so many loopholes and will waste so much of our money.  obama needs to fix the borders but as we know he doesn't want to.  so no amount of job creation in the lower skilled areas is actually going to put a dent into our problems.  now i predicted obama's moves so far and have been correct and i'm predicting this one!  he understands this illegal problem will negatively impact his program greatly but doesn't care!  he just cares about how it looks to people who aren't smart enough to figure this out so he can get re-elected!  i unfortunately have his number!

MyAvatars 0.2 Titus Hunt
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
21

we have too many crooks on both sides in Washington.  the less government involvement in our lives, the better off we are!  they are making a mess out of things.  frank has already said they were not concerned with the deficit right now!  frank, pelosi, dodd and reid are people to be afraid of because they have agendas that will ruin this country.  don't forget how much power they have.  if obama does not stand up to them and go against his own party, which his record shows he has not, we are in deep trouble.  they only people those four idiots respect are themselves!

MyAvatars 0.2 Haley
Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
22

You’re right. State budget deficits will be a problem.   Just wait and see what Capital Hill does when commercial real estate blows apart, consumer credit defaults explode and “level 3” assets that banks own are revealed to be worth much, much less than the banks have said they’re worth.   We all better get ready to duck. 

Illegal immigration is certainly a huge drain on our tax money. More money is spent on illegal immigrants per month than is spent in Iraq per month. I just heard a report the other day that less and less migrant workers are headed our way because of our economy. Perhaps our dreadful economic situation just helped solve another one of our financial problems.

Our government is no more solvent than the financially diseased banks it’s keeping on life-support. These bailouts are as much of a fraud as the securities schemes that caused the epidemic. Will printing more money exceed the amount of previously-created dollars that are now disappearing into thin air through the deflation of our debt?

The new administration’s plan is spend our way into growth. Dr. Frankenbubble will try to jolt the economy back to life by printing more money. So, far the government has pledged over $8 trillion in relief to this credit crisis. Now they’re seriously considering a bailout for the big three auto companies.

We need to let this bubble pop. You can’t fix a bubble by re-inflating it. You can’t fix it by running larger government deficits, cutting interest rates, bailing out failing businesses, buying up Wall Street’s screw ups, easing lending requirements and printing more money.

We need to let this bubble pop, duck when the proverbial @#$% hits the fan, let the pieces fall where they may, and wait it out. The market will correct itself in time.

Think our government will let that happen? Hardly. Our government is going to muck around and ticker with it, it’s going to try to patch a compound fracture with a band-aid. It’ll solve the problem by printing more money to give to banks, failed business and bankrupt states. It will valiantly save us by putting out the fire with gasoline.

In doing so, the FED will kill the dollar.

Get ready for hyperinflation in the next year to year and half, given the usual time lag.

Our dollar will be worth much, much less. Our ability to buy stuff will change. Our ability to buy imported oil will change.  The credit-consumer-petro-agriculture economy will change.

Gotta love all this change.

What kind of economy will rise from the ashes?

We’ll have to get local again. We’ll have to learn how to make things and start producing our own food. We’ll have to trade things for some sort of money that we work to earn. We’ll get a lot more modest.

The silver lining to all this? Perhaps we’ll learn what personal accountability means and what it feels like to actually exercise that character trait. Which the very lack thereof caused this whole drama in the first place.

MyAvatars 0.2 Mike
Monday, December 8th, 2008 at 10:14 am
23

Sen. Dodd said this morning that the Big 3 need change at the top for mismanaging the disaster of the auto industry before they should get any money from the  people of the US.   Might  I suggest he set the  example and resign first and let  the  others in the Congress who have mismanaged our money for so long follow suit before any more bailouts begin.

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Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 at 5:16 am
24

Haley's idea in 22 that.......
<<We need to let this bubble pop, duck when the proverbial @#$% hits the fan, let the pieces fall where they may, and wait it out. The market will correct itself in time.>>
.....Is Market Correction such a good idea?
-Didn't an un-regulated finance market lead to the present situation?

<<We’ll have to get local again. We’ll have to learn how to make things and start producing our own food. We’ll have to trade things for some sort of money that we work to earn. We’ll get a lot more modest.
>>
-Here, Haley shows some wisdom.  This nation was one a manufacturing giant.  Our industrial capacity is one of the main factors that won
World War 2 for us.  I'm no economist, but i'd hate to think about the outcome of a protracted war with China at some future time.

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Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 at 5:17 am
25

<<This nation was one a manufacturing giant. >>
-Should read:
This nation was once a manufacturing giant.

MyAvatars 0.2 Haley
Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 at 10:05 am
26

Hi David, both good questions.

Is Market Correction such a good idea?

In my humble opinion --

The best way to get rid of a bubble is to let it pop and wait it out.  It’ll suck for awhile – but it will correct itself in time. 

When it pops – people will stop spending and start saving.  So, demand disintegrates. Then, stocks disintegrate, asset prices fall - especially for speculative assets.

As orders and asset prices tank…merchants and manufacturers cut back. Jobs are lost.  And then, with less income, demand disintegrates some more.

Eventually, the bubble is as flat as a pancake.

Weak companies have gone out of business.  Good and strong companies are holding on, but producing less. Supplies of goods and services have fallen as far as they're going to go.

Then, with supplies tight, prices begin to rise again.

The whole process takes time. There are millions of mistakes in need of correction. 

Ye can’t fix a bubble by re-inflating it. We can’t fix it by running larger government deficits, cutting interest rates, bailing out failing businesses, buying up Wall Street’s screw ups, easing lending requirements.

We can't cure a bubble by printing more money.  It will kill the dollar.  Just look at what's going on in Zimbabwe right now as an extreme example.

Worse, the fixing this bubble could even compound the problem.

Do we really want the Federal Government to own our banks and auto industries???

Take the FED.   Central banking is, for the most part, a fraud.   The Soviet Union was all about central planning. And that didn't work so well. Are we supposed to believe somehow that central planning will work differently here, just because it's Washington this time that's mismanaging our national wealth?

Seriously.

Remember when people used to take responsibility for their mistakes?  It’s called personal accountability. 

The banks and politicians will skip out on the blame. In fact, they are pointing at each other.

The Fed has injected a combined $207 billion in bailout cash so far. With more coming. That's four times the pile of cash unleashed just after Sept. 11, 2001. And guess what. It hasn't helped. The big banks keep on revealing even bigger losses. More than 2,500 banks, thrifts, credit unions and mortgage companies wrote a combined $1.5 trillion in subprime loans during the peak of the boom.

Given the choice between letting the market correct itself or letting the government try to fix it by printing more money and putting us into a larger federal deficit - while killing the dollar.  I'll pick the Market.  It'll be really uncomfortable for us all - but not as disastrous as killing the dollar and adding to our HUGE federal deficit.   We've got a huge time-bomb in our federal deficit. (We can discuss that one separately)

Didn't an un-regulated finance market lead to the present situation?

Loaded question.  My answer is yes and no.

What started all this craziness in the first place?

A total lack of personal accountability.

Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae gave loans to people who couldn’t afford them.   The  people that couldn’t afford them gladly accepted these bad loans. 

In 1998, Fannie Mae failed to report more than $200 million in expenses. From 2000 - 2003 it overstated its earning by more than $12 billion. Why???  Because it's top executives bonuses were tied to the companies performance. No profits, no bonuses.
Franklin Raines - Fannie Mae's CEO collected $90 million in bonuses and salary. He was forced to resign, but he kept the $90 million and makes $114,000 monthly pension, part of his total retirement package estimated at $25 million.

In Sept 2004, Fannies overseer OFHEO released a 200 page report saying that "the foundation was both willfully breaking accounting rules and fostering and environment of weak or nonexistent internal controls."

Here's our old pal Barney Frank again. He defended Fannie Mae by saying, "I seen nothing in here that suggests that safety and soundness are an issue."

WHAT???

Bush tried to put regulations on Freddy and Fannie in 2006. Who blocked that action? Barney Frank was the leader of the pack.

Why - why - why does Barney Frank keep surfacing in the middle of the muck?   Is he evil or just innocently inept?  He's also one of the people we pay to "fix" our problems. 

Remember when Enron's bosses hid $2.7 billion in losses and people went to jail? That won't be what happens here. Just look at what happened, for instance, back when Merrill Lynch revealed a $7.9 billion loss on subprime bets in 2007. It fired its CEO, Stanley O'Neal, but not without giving him a hefty $161.5 million parting gift first. The same happened for ex-Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince, who walked with $140 million. Even as $17.5 billion disappeared from Citigroup's books in just six months. And $34.6 billion vaporized from Citigroup's outstanding shares. They're bailing out into golden lifeboats and we're paying them to do so. 

Thank you Congress - I love giving my money to these people.  Don't you?

So - yes and no.  If we really want to place blame on someone for this disaster I suggest we all look in the mirror.  Let's not follow the our so-called leaders lead by pointing fingers at one another.  Some of us took the bad loans, some of us elected the officials who thought what they were doing was a good idea, some of us were not paying attention when all this happened (myself included).  So we're all to blame.  We all need to step up and take personal accountability for this mess and help figure out how to fix it -- even if the "fix" is deciding to keep our hands off of it and let it correct itself.

Here are a couple things - knowledge is power -
Perot charts has some really good information about our economic situation http://www.perotcharts.com
Check out I.O.U.S.A the movie --www.iousathemovie.com

Both of these are good primers on where we really stand fiscally. 

MyAvatars 0.2 Haley
Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 at 10:19 am
27

Oops  - two corrections in my above post --happy typing fingers.

We Ye can’t fix a bubble by re-inflating it. 
Worse, the fixing this bubble could even compound the problem.

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Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 5:05 am
28

Haley in 26 posted a thoughtful answer:
-
Particularly,  your idea that ultimately the problem is with the Fed. I agree.....that is a seriously flawed institution. 
Yet, we are seeing the demise of heavy industry and manufacturing in this country, and i see the day when this fact will have negative consequences for our nation's ability to maintain it's status as the world leader.
-And simply letting "free market" forces run their course will do nothing to correct this obvious problem.
<< The Soviet Union was all about central planning. And that didn't work so well.>>
No it didn't work so well for them......however,
it HAS worked well for the Chinese, hasn't it?  And the Chinese are the main contenders for our status as the world leader.  Letting the "Bubble" simply burst and seeing what is left after the smoke clears many not be the best option in my humble opinion.  But like i said.....i'm no economist.

Then you went on to address my other question....
"Didn't an un-regulated finance market lead to the present situation?"
Then you answered by placing the blame on Freddy Mac & Fannie Mae....<<Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae gave loans to people who couldn’t afford them.   The  people that couldn’t afford them gladly accepted these bad loans.>>
-What percent of the total of All failed home loans were Freddy Mac & Fannie Mae loans?  I know it wasn't all of them and i doubt it was a majority of them.
From what i can tell, the bad loans were a symptom and not a cause of the illness that infects our financial system.....perhaps it had something to do with The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999.  This provided the mechanism that allowed all these financial institutions to offer these services that have placed us in our present situation.


MyAvatars 0.2 Haley
Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 10:48 am
29

Actually, David --  I blamed us all.  "If we really want to place blame on someone for this disaster I suggest we all look in the mirror.  Let's not follow the our so-called leaders lead by pointing fingers at one another.  Some of us took the bad loans, some of us elected the officials who thought what they were doing was a good idea, some of us were not paying attention when all this happened (myself included).  So we're all to blame." 

I agree - Fannie and Freddie were just the symptoms of bad legislation - and lack of regulation - however - they seem to be the tipping point of the domino effect.  Fannie and Freddie guaranteed about 58 percent of all single-family loans - over 31 million mortgages. Those mortgages only represent 20 percent of serious delinquencies. Many of the most-troubled loans are in the subprime market.

We spotted the tip of this Sub-prime, Freddie and Fannie Iceberg several times in the last few years before hitting it and we decided to stay the course rather than making a correction.  Why?   Because most of us were enjoying our luxury cruise, ignorant of what was occurring. 

I agree - China is a central banking powerhouse.  It's working out great for the government - perhaps not so well for the people.  It'll be interesting to see what happens over there in the future.

The government won't let the market correct itself by letting the bubble pop. There are too many political careers at risk.  Letting the bubble pop would suck for all of us.  I still believe it would be less devastating to us all  than printing more money and spending our way out of it.   Look at our Federal deficit and what we've added to it in the last couple of months.  The current plan is to put out the fire with gasoline. 

Here's a question back to you  - what do you suggest?  Have you heard any other solutions that make sense?  Besides going down the road to hyper-inflation?   I'm sure there are other ideas out there.

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Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 5:15 am
30

Haley 29........
....this liberal minded man always appreciates reasoned comments such as yours.
<<......... some of us were not paying attention when all this happened (myself included).  So we're all to blame." >>
-including myself as much as i tried.
<<Here's a question back to you  - what do you suggest?  Have you heard any other solutions that make sense?>>
-with respect to "bubble popping", i have a perverse desire (sometimes) to see something like this happen....but like you said;  "There are too many political careers at risk."
Me?  I'm ok on my small plot of land in Moore County N.C. with a small pension from Uncle Sam to pay my taxes and other living expenses.....and i am well armed!  But the possibilities of civil disobedience would negatively affect others.

You hinted at the crux of the problem in 26:
<<Take the FED.   Central banking is, for the most part, a fraud.>>
-along with globalization, our once great nation has been co-opted by those who's self interest is in conflict with the public interest.
I would like to see a way to allow the American workers to have access to jobs that will actually pay the bills, so single mom's can support her kids, so married mom's can opt to stay home to raise the kids, so dad doesn't have to work 3 jobs.....
How that will happen, i am not sure.  But in some way Globalization is part of the problem and not the solution.  Banking and financial interests should not be running the Fed and writing legislation.  Our economy has depended on dot com booms or housing booms for the past 15 years to provide wealth which has been a kind of an illusion
.......We need to begin again to actually make things that pay workers a living wage before we can have an economy that will support our population.  How this will happen?  -Not the way we've been doing things for the past 40 or 50 years.

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